Karsten Müller

March 2026
kmueller@nus.edu.sg · www.karstenmueller.com · +65 8964 0462
NUS Business School · 15 Kent Ridge Drive · Singapore, 119245
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Academic Positions

2021–
Assistant Professor of Finance, National University of Singapore
2022–
Presidential Young Professorship, National University of Singapore
2018–21
Postdoctoral Research Associate, Princeton University

Other Affiliations

2025–
Affiliate (IMF, BCF), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
2025–
Affiliate, Global Linkages Lab, Brown University
2024–
Research Fellow, Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore
2023–
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Caribbean Progress Studies Institute
2022–
Member, United Nations Jamaican Economy Panel

Education

2018
Ph.D. Business and Management, Warwick Business School
2014
M.Sc. Strategy, Innovation, and Management Control, WU Vienna
2012
B.Sc. Economics and Business Administration, J. W. Goethe University Frankfurt

Research Fields

Primary: Finance, Macroeconomics · Secondary: Political Economy

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Finance

  1. "Interacting Anomalies", with Simon Schmickler
    Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2025, Pages 162–216.
  2. "Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations", with Emil Verner
    The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91, Issue 6, November 2024, Pages 3645–3676.
    Project website: www.globalcreditproject.com
  3. "Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation"
    American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2023, 15(4), 295–322.
  4. "Busy Bankruptcy Courts and the Cost of Credit"
    Journal of Financial Economics, 2022, 143(2), 824–845.
  5. "Bank Branching Deregulation and the Syndicated Loan Market", with Jan Keil
    Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2020, 55(4), 1269–1303.

Political Economy

  1. "From Apprentice to President? Entertainment TV and US Elections", with Carlo Schwarz
    The Leadership Quarterly, 35(3), 101758.
  2. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States", with Thomas Fujiwara and Carlo Schwarz
    Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 22, Issue 3, June 2024, Pages 1495–1539.
  3. "From Hashtag to Hate Crime: Twitter and Antiminority Sentiment", with Carlo Schwarz
    American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2023, 15(3), 270–312.
  4. "Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime", with Carlo Schwarz
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2021, 19(4), 2131–2167.

Book Chapters and Other Publications

  1. "gmd: The Easy Way to Access the World's Most Comprehensive Macroeconomic Database", with Mohamed Lehbib
    Revise and Resubmit, The Stata Journal
  2. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States", with Thomas Fujiwara and Carlo Schwarz
    In The Political Economy of Social Media, CEPR Press, 2023, Chapter 7.
  3. "Can Social Media Spur Offline Hatred?", with Carlo Schwarz
    In The Political Economy of Social Media, CEPR Press, 2023, Chapter 14.
  4. "Does the Sectoral Allocation of Credit Matter for Financial Stability Risks?"
    In Leveraged: The New Economics of Debt and Financial Fragility, University of Chicago Press, 2022.
  5. "The Early County Business Patterns Files: 1946–1974", with Fabian Eckert, Ka-leung Lam, Atif Mian, Rafael Schwalb, and Amir Sufi
    NBER Working Paper 30578, October 2022.

Working Papers

  1. "Unbalanced Financial Deepening", with Emil Verner and Paul Dai
  2. "Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises", with Victoria Ivashina, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, and Luc Laeven
  3. "Two Centuries of Systemic Bank Runs", with Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, and Farzad Saidi
    Project website: www.systemicbankruns.com
  4. "The Costs of Financial Crises in the United States", with Joseph Hoon, Chang Liu, Jonathan Payne, and Zhongxi Zheng
  5. "U.S. State-Level Business Cycles Since the Civil War", with Joseph Hoon, Chang Liu, and Zhongxi Zheng
    Reject and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
  6. "The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset", with Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib, and Ziliang Chen
    Project website: www.globalmacrodata.com
  7. "EXIM's Exit: Industrial Policy, Export Credit Agencies, and Capital Allocation", with Adrien Matray, Chenzi Xu, and Poorya Kabir
    Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
  8. "Social Media and Stock Market Participation", with Yuanyuan Pan and Carlo Schwarz
    Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
  9. "The Online and Offline Effects of Content Moderation: Evidence from Germany's NetzDG", with Rafael Jiménez Durán and Carlo Schwarz
    Revise and Resubmit, AEJ: Applied Economics
  10. "Social Media vs. Democracy: Evidence from the January 6th Insurrection", with Carlo Schwarz and Zekai Shen

Selected Work in Progress

  1. "Creditor Rights and Credit Cycles", with Martin Kornejew and Shohini Kundu
  2. "Wholesale Funding Runs, 1800–2024", with Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Sami Mahmood, and Farzad Saidi
  3. "Credit Supply and Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from Petrodollar Recycling", with Rafael Schwalb and Amir Sufi
  4. "Persistent Crises", with Mohamed Lehbib and Chenzi Xu

Other Relevant Positions

2025
Visiting Scholar, Harvard Business School (September–November)
2024
Research Fellowship Programme, Bank for International Settlements (August)
2022
Visiting Fellow, Foundations of Law and Finance, Goethe University (June–August)
2017
Visiting Ph.D. Student, University of Chicago Booth School of Business (January–June)

Teaching

2022–26
BMF5332 Foundation of Investments (MSc in Finance)
BMA5302 Investment Analysis and Management (MBA)
National University of Singapore
2015–16
Teaching assistant for EC229 Economics of Strategy (Undergraduate)
University of Warwick, Warwick Business School
2013–14
Teaching assistant for various finance courses (Undergraduate/Graduate)
Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)

Professional Service

Invited Seminars and Conferences

Selected co-author presentations marked with *.

Show all 2015–2026 (long list)
Scheduled
SUFE, Fudan, Peking U (×2), University Carlos III of Madrid, Banco de España, NBER IFM Spring Meeting*, NBER Chinese Economy Meeting*, WFA*, FIRS*, 1st Workshop on Financial Intermediation at Banco de España*, Federal Reserve Financial and Monetary History Conference (×2*), SED (×2*).
2025
AEA/AFA 2025 (×3), NBER IFM Spring Meetings*, NBER Corporate Finance Spring Meetings*, FIRS, Goethe University, SNU, EFA*, WFA*, SED*, NBER Summer Institute (×2), PIDM, ISB, HKU, BIS HK Office, Boston College, Boston Fed, HBS Finance Unit (Brown Bag), St. Andrews (Online), University of Toronto, Miami Business School, Brown U, Princeton JRCPP Annual Conference.
2024
AEA 2024*, NUS LKYSPP, NBER International Trade and Investment Spring Meeting*, NUS Macro Brown Bag, Adam Smith Workshop*, City MacroFinance Global Seminars, NBER ITI Spring Meeting, Banco de Portugal and CEPR Conference on Financial Intermediation*, FIRS (×2), LSE-Oxford Workshop in International Macroeconomics and Finance*, Stanford GSB*, UW Foster*, LBS*, SMU (Brown Bag), Qatar Centre for Global Banking & Finance Annual Conference*, SED (×2), SNB Annual Research Conference*, EFA*, NFA*, CEBRA, Kiel International Lending Webinar, Yale Program on Financial Stability*, CEPR Online Macro History Online Seminar*, ASB, Wharton Conference on Liquidity and Financial Fragility (×2)*, USC Social and Behavioral Finance Conference, London Business School (Economics), Oxford (Economics), Bayes Business School, NBER SI joint IFM-Money Financial Frictions-Monetary Economics*, University of Geneva, University of Zürich, Finance in the Tuscan Hills, SITE*.
2023
Swiss Winter Conference on Financial Intermediation, CEPR Household Finance Conference, NUS, Norges Bank, U Bocconi (Brown Bag), ECB, OCC Symposium on Emerging Risks in the Banking System, SEHO, Finance in the Tuscan Hills, CEBRA, NBER SI, 2nd CEPR Workshop on Media, Technology, Politics, and Society*, 2023 SSRC Workshop on the Economics of Social Media*, IMF, Fed Board, U Maryland, U Colorado (Boulder), Singapore Scholars Symposium.
2022
AEA, WECON, Eastern Economic Association, OCC Symposium on Systemic Risk and Stress Testing in Banking, ABFER, Finance in the Tuscan Hills, NUS, 11th EBC Network Conference, Goethe U, EFA, SFS Calvacade A-P, NUS, 52nd Money, Macro, and Finance Conference, EEA, FMA, CREDIT, SITE, AEA*, UBC Sauder, Amsterdam, HEC Lausanne, Frankfurt School, BC Carroll, Bocconi, HKU, EIEF, HKUST, BIS, ASU, Fed Board, UW Foster, Chicago Fed, CEPR Conference on The Politics of Regulation and Central Banking, Duke Fuqua*, Yale SOM*, NBER CF Spring Meetings, Brookings Institution, MIT Sloan*, NBER PE Spring Meetings*, CBS*.
2021
Florida International University*, Norwegian BI*, MoFiR, NBER SI*, RiskLab/BoF/ESRB Conference, Harvard/MIT Financial Economics Workshop*, CEPR 3rd Endless Summer Conference*, Central Bank of Ireland Workshop, Bank of Spain–CEMFI 3rd Conference on Financial Stability, SEACEN, Cleveland Fed and Office of Financial Research 2021 Conference on Financial Stability, IMF*, LBS*.
2020
AEA, UNHCR-World Bank-Brown-Harvard Conference on Forced Displacement, Imperial*, Princeton U, IMF Macro-Financial Research Conference, UCSD*, U Cambridge, U Oslo*, Berkeley Haas RE*, SSE*, U Rochester, NUS.
2019
AEA, NYU SMaPP, Political Economy of Finance Conference, Princeton U, SNB, BIS, MFA, Swiss Winter Conference on Financial Intermediation, U Zürich, BOE, U Warwick, Young Economists Spring Meeting*, CFIC, RES*, SFS Calvacade, INET Conference on Private Debt, WFA, IMF, NBER Summer Institute*, AOM Panel Session, EEA*, Columbia Young Economists Symposium*, Galatina Summer Meeting*, Bundesbank/CEPR Conference, Rutgers, ENS Lyon*, EMEC*, German Economists Abroad Meetings, ECB Macroprudential Policy & Research Conference.
2018
Bonn U, U Chicago*, MFA*, EEA*, EFA, U Warwick*, Workshop on Political Economy Bozen-Bolzano*, Oxford Internet Institute*, Bundesbank Conference on Financial Cycles and Regulation, Princeton U.
2017
WECON, ASBA-World Bank Research Conference, U Chicago, BOE, EFiC, IFABS*, EEA, UWI, Leverhulme Trust Ph.D. Meetings*, DGF.
2016
WBS, UWI*, TADC (LBS), MoFiR, BHC/BoE/CEPR/CFM Conference.
2015
BIS, UWI.

Refereeing

Journal of Finance · Review of Financial Studies · Journal of Financial Economics · Quarterly Journal of Economics · American Economic Review · AER Insights · American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics · Journal of Public Economics · Journal of Monetary Economics · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · Review of Finance · Management Science · Review of Economics and Statistics · Economic Policy · Economic Journal · European Economic Review · Journal of Banking and Finance · Journal of Law and Economics · Journal of Urban Economics.

Grant Reviewing

National Science Foundation (NSF) · German Foundation for Peace Research (DSF) · Canadian Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

Discussions

Show conference discussions

AEA 2025 · 3rd ASB-CEPR-ERSA-ADB-CAMA-BNM and WB Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets · EFA 2024 · AEA 2023 · Singapore Scholars Symposium 2022 · IWH-FIN-FIRE Workshop 2022 · BOFIT Banking & Institutions Workshop 2022 · AEA 2022 · FMA 2021 · HU-Bundesbank Financial Intermediation & Corporate Debt Markets Workshop 2021 · MoFiR Virtual Seminar 2021 · MFA 2020 · BOFIT Finance & Politics Workshop 2020 · Lenzerheide Conference 2019 · FIRS 2019 · DGF 2017 · TADC 2016.

Program Committee

SFS Calvacade (2026, 2025) · EFA (2025, 2024) · CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop (2025, 2024) · MFA (2026, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) · MoFiR (2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) · RES 2020 · IBEFA Summer Meeting (2026) · Oxford-VU SBE Macro-finance Conference (2026).

Conference Organization

MoFiR 2025.

Grants and Fellowships

2025
Robert Brown Promising Researcher Award — S$130,000, Singapore Ministry of Education
2025
"The Local Consequences of Global Capital Flows: Evidence from Historical Data" — Tier 2 Grant, S$260,000, Singapore Ministry of Education
2025
"The Changing Nature of Financial Crises, 1800–2024" — Tier 1 Grant, S$90,000, Singapore Ministry of Education
2024
"Global Credit Project" — Grant, S$250,000, NUS Risk Management Institute
2023
"Corporate Debt, Bank Runs, and Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from New Historical Data" — Tier 1 Grant, S$120,000, Singapore Ministry of Education
2022
Presidential Young Professorship — S$400,000, Singapore Ministry of Education
2021
Start-Up Grant — S$100,000, National University of Singapore
2021
Junior Research Grant, Investigator (with Carlo Schwarz) — €9,919, Bocconi University / Fondazione Romeo ed Enrica Invernizzi
2020
Grant for "Empirical Macrofinance", Co-investigator (PI: Atif Mian and Ernest Liu) — $388,000, National Science Foundation (NSF)
2019
Unrestricted gift — $25,000, Governor's Woods Foundation
2019
Grant "Social Media and Election Outcomes" (with T. Fujiwara and C. Schwarz) — $5,000, Princeton Data-Driven Social Science Initiative
2019
Grant for "Private Debt Cycles: Evidence from Disaggregated Data" (with Emil Verner) — $15,000, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
2019
Research Award — £2,500, Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Awards

2023
Early Career Research Excellence Award, NUS Business School
2021
Best Paper Award (Financial Markets & Institutions), Financial Management Association (FMA)
2021
Ieke van den Burg Prize for Research on Systemic Risk (Winner), European Systemic Risk Board
2019
Best Poster Award, 12th Swiss Winter Conference on Financial Intermediation
2019
Ieke van den Burg Prize for Research on Systemic Risk (Runner Up), European Systemic Risk Board
2017
Overseas Institutional Visit (OIV) Award for visit at Chicago Booth, Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
2017
Doctoral Student Travel Award, European Economic Association (EEA)
2016
Doctoral Student Travel Grant, American Finance Association (AFA)
2014–18
Postgraduate Research Scholarship, Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
2014–18
Chancellor's International Scholarship, University of Warwick
2013
Merit Scholarship, Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU)

Service

National University of Singapore

2021–
PhD Supervision: Yuanyuan Pan, Ziyu Su, Mohamed Lehbib, Zhongxi Zheng, Joseph Hoon
2021–
PhD Committee, Member
2022–
Junior Finance Reading Group, Founder and Coordinator
2024–
NUS BIZ Finance Research Lab, Founder and Coordinator

Placements

Former full-time research assistants

Zhiyao Xu
Erasmus University Rotterdam, PhD in Finance (2024)
Ziyu Su
NUS Business School, PhD in Finance (2024)
Mohamed Lehbib
NUS Business School, PhD in Finance (2025)
Yuhui Zhang
The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), PhD in Finance (2025)
Zekai Shen
Bocconi University, PhD in Economics (2025)
Last updated: March 2026